Migration cuts may prompt skills crisis
There have been articles written recently by various newspapers, regarding this topic. One such article states:-
“Large cuts to migrant numbers could exacerbate a looming skills shortage and lead to wage blowouts as the resources sector gears up for another boom, industry analysts warn.
The housing construction industry has been complaining about a structural undersupply of labour and the lack of a dedicated migration program for the residential sector.
But it also says migration targets may not be enough to maintain a working age population.
“There’s no doubt there is a shortage of labour there,” Housing Industry Association (HIA) chief economist Harley Dale was quoted as saying.
“It’s not as acute as it has been at some periods in the past simply because industries were recovering from what was a very weak 2008/2009, but we have pretty clear evidence that there are widespread labour shortages.”
A recent HIA survey found eight of 13 housing trades were under-supplied in the June quarter.
“I think we will get a situation where we’re going to continue having a challenge providing sufficient skilled labour,” he said.
He went on to say that as demand picked up, there would be a repeat of the labour shortages and wages blow outs of 2006, 2007 and early 2008, particularly in resource-rich states of Western Australia and Queensland.
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures released on Thursday show new capital investment fell unexpectedly in the June quarter, but investment plans for 2011 still look strong.
Mining investment is expected to increase by between 40 and 50 per cent over the year.
Another economist was quoted as saying ”Wage pressures were expected to increase in resource rich areas as the job market tightened after the sharpest migration downturn in more than a decade and a half”.
“There has been a sharp reduction of net inflow of people, net migration, over the last couple of months”.
“It’s one of the sharpest downturns that we’ve seen in long-term migration in around about 16 years”.”
Since this article was published, another article, even more recent, has the Headline:-
AUSTRALIA is heading towards recording its biggest drop in immigration numbers in 90 years.
“Although official data will not be published until next month by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, analysis of long-term entrant figures – an advance indicator of official migration levels – show a 32 per cent fall in the past year.
Demographic experts Macroplan Australia said the number of long-term and permanent entrants – including permanent settlers, students and temporary workers – fell by 111,000 people, from 341,000 to 230,000 in the 12 months to July 31, 2010.
“The fall is the greatest since just after the First World War, when arrivals were boosted to record numbers of returning soldiers,” said Robert Hall of Macroplan.
“The following year, numbers obviously subsided back to normal levels.” That aside, the decline in the 12 months is the largest since 1901.
“If there is only a small change in overseas arrivals then you should not take much notice, but if there is a big difference drop then you would expect that to filter through to our official migration figures,” said Neil Scott, assistant director at the ABS.
Immigration was a hot issue in the federal election, with the Coalition promising to cut net migration to 170,000 each year, a figure Labor said would be achieved anyway through a natural decline from the high numbers recorded before the GFC.
The Intergenerational Report, produced by the Treasury, has assumed average annual migration of 180,000 from 2012 onwards, but Labor has been careful not to enshrine this figure as a target.
Macroplan said for net migration to fall below 200,000, the government would have to introduce a variety of new restrictions on migration quotas and visa restrictions.
It says the fall in arrivals in the past year was due to a combination of factors including the GFC, government policy reducing the number of visas available, and reports of racist violence against Indian students.
Robert Hall said a drastic cut in immigration would be disastrous.
“Over the past 20 years our economic growth has been 3.4 per cent a year, but if migration falls to the Government’s target of 180,000 a year, it would fall to 2.7 per cent – meaning a big drop in our standard of living,” he said.
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Health Matters
| The following item has been advised to all Registered Migration Agents by our Association – the Migration Institute of Australia.
The Chief Medical Officer, otherwise known as “MOC” – Medical Officer of the Commonwealth, is ultimately responsible for decisions regarding the health of all visa applicant’s. The majority do not have to be referred to him, but where specific cases require further examination, the ultimate decision is made by him and the Department of Immigration and Citizenship (DIAC) must comply with his decision, which can lead to an applicant’s visa being refused on Medical grounds only.
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Dr Paul Douglas, DIAC Chief Medical Officer and Global Manager of Health reported on:
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UK to slash Aussie work visas
This was an article written in the Australian Newspaper dated August 28 2010 by Mr Peter Wilson, their European Correspondent.
BRITAIN’S looming clampdown on the number of Australians it allows to work there is likely to be even tougher.
This follows the release yesterday of new figures showing an upsurge in net immigration.
The Conservative Party promised before its election victory in May that it would cut the level of net immigration to below 100,000 a year, largely by reducing the number of economic migrants from Australia and other countries that are not members of the European Union.
But yesterday’s figures showed British net immigration rose last year from 163,000 to 196,000, meaning the cutback will have to be even steeper than anticipated.
David Cameron’s government has already imposed an interim cut of 5 per cent on the number of skilled migrant workers allowed into the country from outside the EU while it consults employers on how it should impose its longer-term cuts from next April.
Immigration Minister Damian Green said the rising number of arrivals showed “why we must tighten our immigration system in order to reduce net migration to manageable levels”.
Australian companies operating in London plan to join their British counterparts in using the consultation process over the next three weeks to argue that the government should not make it harder for them to move foreign employees to Britain, or to hire foreigners who find their own way there.
That lobbying campaign has been made harder by the rise in net immigration, even though yesterday’s statistics shows non-EU workers are not behind the rising level of immigration.
The main causes were a sharp increase in the number of foreigners entering Britain to study, and a fall in the number of Britons leaving. The net flow of Britons shifting overseas dropped from 90,000 in 2008 to 36,000 last year, lifting net immigration by 54,000.
The only way the government can be sure of keeping its promise to lower net immigration is by imposing particularly heavy cuts on new entrants.
And Britain’s membership of the EU means it is legally bound to allow free access to citizens of the 26 other EU members, leaving Australians, Americans and Asians as the main victims of the threatened cutbacks.
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